MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 3:37 AM to 4:06 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 3:37 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -7.99245. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:06 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-7.476-3.6320.2122Sep 28, 3:37 AM ET4:06 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 3:37 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-7.476-3.6320.2122Sep 28, 3:37 AM ET4:06 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:37 AM ET-7.99245
Projected value at 4:06 AM ET0.136363
Actual value at 4:06 AM ET-1.50508
Projected change across the window+8.12881
Actual change across the window+6.48737
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.25×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.25 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (4:04 AM ET), where they sat 0.53802 apart, and furthest at bar 7 (3:44 AM ET) with a gap of 6.4116. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (4:01 AM ET), a move of +0.999347. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:38 AM-2.30836-7.73329-5.42493
63:43 AM-0.416173-6.29275-5.87658
123:49 AM0.321531-4.68885-5.01038
183:55 AM0.552076-4.16628-4.71836
244:01 AM0.405895-0.244264-0.65016
294:06 AM0.136363-1.50508-1.64144

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.