MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 1:55 AM to 2:24 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 1:55 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -12.7951. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:24 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-12.02-5.491.04Sep 28, 1:55 AM ET2:24 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:55 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-12.02-5.491.04Sep 28, 1:55 AM ET2:24 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:55 AM ET-12.7951
Projected value at 2:24 AM ET-1.80103
Actual value at 2:24 AM ET-5.17909
Projected change across the window+10.9941
Actual change across the window+7.61602
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.44×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.44 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (2:05 AM ET), where they sat 0.063451 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (1:56 AM ET) with a gap of 8.23695. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (2:06 AM ET), a move of +2.10658. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:56 AM-4.65946-12.8964-8.23695
62:01 AM-4.50469-9.54377-5.03908
122:07 AM-3.79964-0.105541+3.6941
182:13 AM-3.214441.2532+4.46764
242:19 AM-2.347480.497017+2.84449
292:24 AM-1.80103-5.17909-3.37806

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.