MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 12:15 AM to 12:44 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 12:15 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.4112. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:44 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-2.2916.12314.54Sep 28, 12:15 AM ET12:44 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:15 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-2.2916.12314.54Sep 28, 12:15 AM ET12:44 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:15 AM ET14.4112
Projected value at 12:44 AM ET-3.42134
Actual value at 12:44 AM ET2.67236
Projected change across the window-17.8325
Actual change across the window-11.7388
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.52×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.52 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:44 AM ET), where they sat 6.0937 apart, and furthest at bar 12 (12:27 AM ET) with a gap of 12.7028. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (12:44 AM ET), a move of -2.01508. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:16 AM4.9748415.2507+10.2759
612:21 AM4.0383814.6037+10.5653
1212:27 AM1.3348614.0377+12.7028
1812:33 AM-0.659747.22427+7.88401
2412:39 AM-2.274817.75742+10.0322
2912:44 AM-3.421342.67236+6.0937

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.