MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 12:13 AM to 12:42 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 12:13 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 15.6678. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:42 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-2.8345.83514.5Sep 28, 12:13 AM ET12:42 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:13 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-2.8345.83514.5Sep 28, 12:13 AM ET12:42 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:13 AM ET15.6678
Projected value at 12:42 AM ET-3.9986
Actual value at 12:42 AM ET0.180242
Projected change across the window-19.6664
Actual change across the window-15.4875
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.27×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.27 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:42 AM ET), where they sat 4.17884 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:13 AM ET) with a gap of 12.7085. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (12:40 AM ET), a move of -2.01508. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:14 AM3.2598415.3104+12.0505
612:19 AM2.4888114.4078+11.9189
1212:25 AM0.58139711.3221+10.7407
1812:31 AM-1.448746.19969+7.64843
2412:37 AM-2.635847.12076+9.7566
2912:42 AM-3.99860.180242+4.17884

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.