MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 10:17 PM to 10:46 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 10:17 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -18.4394. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:46 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-18.04-7.2623.514Sep 27, 10:17 PM ET10:46 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 10:17 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-18.04-7.2623.514Sep 27, 10:17 PM ET10:46 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:17 PM ET-18.4394
Projected value at 10:46 PM ET0.0512051
Actual value at 10:46 PM ET4.96092
Projected change across the window+18.4906
Actual change across the window+23.4004
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.79×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.79 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (10:34 PM ET), where they sat 0.0916344 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (10:28 PM ET) with a gap of 12.69. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 18 (10:35 PM ET), a move of +6.39878. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:18 PM-7.40395-19.2903-11.8863
610:23 PM-6.65646-17.1187-10.4622
1210:29 PM-4.71039-17.0059-12.2956
1810:35 PM-2.45913.52274+5.98183
2410:41 PM-1.053554.43857+5.49212
2910:46 PM0.05120514.96092+4.90972

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.