MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 15, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 15, 2026, 4:49 PM to 5:18 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 15, 2026 at 4:49 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 4.21537. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:18 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-8.629-1.425.789Sep 15, 4:49 PM ET5:18 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:49 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-8.629-1.425.789Sep 15, 4:49 PM ET5:18 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:49 PM ET4.21537
Projected value at 5:18 PM ET0.428391
Actual value at 5:18 PM ET0.828289
Projected change across the window-3.78698
Actual change across the window-3.38708
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.12×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.12 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (5:17 PM ET), where they sat 0.21356 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (5:06 PM ET) with a gap of 10.4314. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (4:58 PM ET), a move of -2.52172. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:50 PM1.90784.70227+2.79447
64:55 PM1.647414.6747+3.02729
125:01 PM1.17717-5.69757-6.87474
185:07 PM0.735886-9.00197-9.73785
245:13 PM0.551415-1.73236-2.28378
295:18 PM0.4283910.828289+0.399898

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.