MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 15, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 15, 2026, 4:49 PM to 5:18 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 15, 2026 at 4:49 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 4.21537. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:18 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-8.629-1.425.789Sep 15, 4:49 PM ET5:18 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:49 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-8.629-1.425.789Sep 15, 4:49 PM ET5:18 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:49 PM ET4.21537
Projected value at 5:18 PM ET0.428391
Actual value at 5:18 PM ET0.828289
Projected change across the window-3.78698
Actual change across the window-3.38708
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.12×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.12 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (5:17 PM ET), where they sat 0.21356 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (5:06 PM ET) with a gap of 10.4314. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (4:58 PM ET), a move of -2.52172. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:50 PM1.90784.70227+2.79447
64:55 PM1.647414.6747+3.02729
125:01 PM1.17717-5.69757-6.87474
185:07 PM0.735886-9.00197-9.73785
245:13 PM0.551415-1.73236-2.28378
295:18 PM0.4283910.828289+0.399898

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.