MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 15, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 15, 2026, 1:31 PM to 2:00 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 15, 2026 at 1:31 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -7.96626. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:00 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-7.409-3.2610.8865Sep 15, 1:31 PM ET2:00 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:31 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-7.409-3.2610.8865Sep 15, 1:31 PM ET2:00 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:31 PM ET-7.96626
Projected value at 2:00 PM ET-0.67526
Actual value at 2:00 PM ET0.957522
Projected change across the window+7.291
Actual change across the window+8.92378
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.82×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.82 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (1:33 PM ET), where they sat 0.0149161 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:31 PM ET) with a gap of 3.83138. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (1:33 PM ET), a move of +3.17403. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:32 PM-3.9522-6.95475-3.00255
61:37 PM-2.94976-3.71351-0.763748
121:43 PM-1.91579-4.47097-2.55518
181:49 PM-1.13383-0.654389+0.479442
241:55 PM-0.8295441.27734+2.10689
292:00 PM-0.675260.957522+1.63278

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.