MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 4:27 PM to 4:56 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -9.72813. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:56 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-9.471-3.3922.687Sep 11, 4:27 PM ET4:56 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:27 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-9.471-3.3922.687Sep 11, 4:27 PM ET4:56 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:27 PM ET-9.72813
Projected value at 4:56 PM ET-0.393978
Actual value at 4:56 PM ET-3.20765
Projected change across the window+9.33416
Actual change across the window+6.52049
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.43×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.43 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (4:41 PM ET), where they sat 0.0597238 apart, and furthest at bar 2 (4:29 PM ET) with a gap of 7.7481. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (4:53 PM ET), a move of -1.84581. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:28 PM-2.5925-10.2879-7.69539
64:33 PM-1.80541-8.31913-6.51372
124:39 PM-1.18431-3.31208-2.12777
184:45 PM-0.6716092.27038+2.94199
244:51 PM-0.4746160.208827+0.683443
294:56 PM-0.393978-3.20765-2.81367

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.