MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 4:21 PM to 4:50 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -9.06254. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:50 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-8.319-2.7792.76Sep 11, 4:21 PM ET4:50 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:21 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-8.319-2.7792.76Sep 11, 4:21 PM ET4:50 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:21 PM ET-9.06254
Projected value at 4:50 PM ET-0.609847
Actual value at 4:50 PM ET1.23459
Projected change across the window+8.4527
Actual change across the window+10.2971
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.82×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.82 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 8 (4:28 PM ET), where they sat 0.379729 apart, and furthest at bar 16 (4:37 PM ET) with a gap of 5.68824. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (4:42 PM ET), a move of -1.84581. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:22 PM-5.23027-8.31913-3.08886
64:27 PM-3.9306-4.67525-0.744653
124:33 PM-2.738981.61812+4.3571
184:39 PM-1.894081.71709+3.61117
244:45 PM-1.30524-3.20765-1.9024
294:50 PM-0.6098471.23459+1.84444

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.