MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 4:18 PM to 4:47 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 4:18 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -6.86671. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:47 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-6.175-1.0254.126Sep 11, 4:18 PM ET4:47 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:18 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-6.175-1.0254.126Sep 11, 4:18 PM ET4:47 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:18 PM ET-6.86671
Projected value at 4:47 PM ET-0.922538
Actual value at 4:47 PM ET4.81732
Projected change across the window+5.94417
Actual change across the window+11.684
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.51×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.51 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (4:20 PM ET), where they sat 0.0092082 apart, and furthest at bar 13 (4:31 PM ET) with a gap of 6.75536. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (4:45 PM ET), a move of +1.93224. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:19 PM-5.89021-6.42925-0.539036
64:24 PM-4.71373-1.04076+3.67298
124:30 PM-3.417622.92937+6.347
184:36 PM-2.41579-2.08874+0.327049
244:42 PM-1.6135-2.07176-0.458254
294:47 PM-0.9225384.81732+5.73986

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.