MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 1:50 PM to 2:19 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 1:50 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 2.96617. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:19 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-12.84-5.4341.972Sep 11, 1:50 PM ET2:19 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:50 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-12.84-5.4341.972Sep 11, 1:50 PM ET2:19 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:50 PM ET2.96617
Projected value at 2:19 PM ET0.0844616
Actual value at 2:19 PM ET1.14788
Projected change across the window-2.88171
Actual change across the window-1.81829
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.58×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.58 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (2:17 PM ET), where they sat 0.0643735 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (2:08 PM ET) with a gap of 13.7071. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (2:10 PM ET), a move of +4.25615. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:51 PM0.4749462.84637+2.37142
61:56 PM0.202215-2.92839-3.13061
122:02 PM-0.0109297-9.29129-9.28037
182:08 PM-0.128013-13.8351-13.7071
242:14 PM-0.232423-1.92007-1.68765
292:19 PM0.08446161.14788+1.06342

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.