MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 12:04 PM to 12:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 11, 2026 at 12:04 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read -0.667338. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-0.25372.8275.907Sep 11, 12:04 PM ET12:33 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-0.25372.8275.907Sep 11, 12:04 PM ET12:33 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:04 PM ET-0.667338
Projected value at 12:33 PM ET0.93419
Actual value at 12:33 PM ET1.2193
Projected change across the window+1.60153
Actual change across the window+1.88664
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (12:30 PM ET), where they sat 0.114562 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (12:18 PM ET) with a gap of 4.81694. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (12:07 PM ET), a move of +1.17738. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:05 PM0.4322320.190653-0.241579
612:10 PM1.328024.24062+2.91261
1212:16 PM1.546646.26296+4.71632
1812:22 PM1.261585.75823+4.49665
2412:28 PM1.047291.93486+0.887567
2912:33 PM0.934191.2193+0.285113

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.