MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 12:04 PM to 12:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 12:04 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -0.667338. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-0.25372.8275.907Sep 11, 12:04 PM ET12:33 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-0.25372.8275.907Sep 11, 12:04 PM ET12:33 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:04 PM ET-0.667338
Projected value at 12:33 PM ET0.93419
Actual value at 12:33 PM ET1.2193
Projected change across the window+1.60153
Actual change across the window+1.88664
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (12:30 PM ET), where they sat 0.114562 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (12:18 PM ET) with a gap of 4.81694. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (12:07 PM ET), a move of +1.17738. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:05 PM0.4322320.190653-0.241579
612:10 PM1.328024.24062+2.91261
1212:16 PM1.546646.26296+4.71632
1812:22 PM1.261585.75823+4.49665
2412:28 PM1.047291.93486+0.887567
2912:33 PM0.934191.2193+0.285113

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.