MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 11:48 AM to 12:17 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 11, 2026 at 11:48 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 5.3651. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:17 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-2.0831.7165.514Sep 11, 11:48 AM ET12:17 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 11:48 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-2.0831.7165.514Sep 11, 11:48 AM ET12:17 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:48 AM ET5.3651
Projected value at 12:17 PM ET-0.0255475
Actual value at 12:17 PM ET-2.59297
Projected change across the window-5.39065
Actual change across the window-7.95807
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.68×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.68 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 2 (11:49 AM ET), where they sat 0.0605106 apart, and furthest at bar 28 (12:16 PM ET) with a gap of 2.85815. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (12:12 PM ET), a move of -1.37534. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:49 AM5.318815.2583-0.0605106
611:54 AM3.215543.08478-0.130754
1212:00 PM1.933880.66466-1.26922
1812:06 PM1.368192.4835+1.11531
2412:12 PM0.727435-0.748379-1.47581
2912:17 PM-0.0255475-2.59297-2.56742

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.