MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 4:18 PM to 4:47 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 4:18 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -9.85938. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:47 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-8.935-2.0494.837Sep 8, 4:18 PM ET4:47 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:18 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-8.935-2.0494.837Sep 8, 4:18 PM ET4:47 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:18 PM ET-9.85938
Projected value at 4:47 PM ET0.232563
Actual value at 4:47 PM ET5.7616
Projected change across the window+10.0919
Actual change across the window+15.621
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.65×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.65 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (4:32 PM ET), where they sat 0.203938 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (4:18 PM ET) with a gap of 7.30609. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (4:27 PM ET), a move of +1.6524. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:19 PM-2.16518-9.21938-7.05419
64:24 PM-1.31097-6.59163-5.28065
124:30 PM-0.739599-0.24036+0.49924
184:36 PM-0.117753-1.5319-1.41415
244:42 PM0.0531162.00402+1.9509
294:47 PM0.2325635.7616+5.52904

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.