MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 2:10 PM to 2:39 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 2:10 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 9.92162. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:39 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-10.83-1.1098.616Sep 2, 2:10 PM ET2:39 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 2:10 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-10.83-1.1098.616Sep 2, 2:10 PM ET2:39 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:10 PM ET9.92162
Projected value at 2:39 PM ET-0.349843
Actual value at 2:39 PM ET3.20354
Projected change across the window-10.2715
Actual change across the window-6.71807
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.53 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (2:15 PM ET), where they sat 0.879658 apart, and furthest at bar 12 (2:22 PM ET) with a gap of 11.3503. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (2:17 PM ET), a move of -2.9217. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:11 PM-0.2024728.24083+8.4433
62:16 PM-0.676794-2.52972-1.85293
122:22 PM-0.788933-12.1393-11.3503
182:28 PM-0.541198-6.5944-6.0532
242:34 PM-0.6926542.08333+2.77598
292:39 PM-0.3498433.20354+3.55339

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.