MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 2, 2026, 1:26 PM to 1:55 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 2, 2026 at 1:26 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 7.82716. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:55 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-12-2.7116.579Sep 2, 1:26 PM ET1:55 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:26 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-12-2.7116.579Sep 2, 1:26 PM ET1:55 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:26 PM ET7.82716
Projected value at 1:55 PM ET-4.16085
Actual value at 1:55 PM ET-13.0275
Projected change across the window-11.988
Actual change across the window-20.8546
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.57×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.57 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (1:41 PM ET), where they sat 0.221116 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:26 PM ET) with a gap of 10.207. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (1:51 PM ET), a move of -1.53963. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:27 PM-1.202536.58272+7.78526
61:32 PM-0.4912343.87177+4.36301
121:38 PM-0.559351.00913+1.56848
181:44 PM1.14775-2.28225-3.43
241:50 PM-0.0756537-9.31669-9.24103
291:55 PM-4.16085-13.0275-8.86661

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.