MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 15-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 3:59 PM to 11:14 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 3:59 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 15-minute chart read -2.62771. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:14 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-3.558-1.815-0.07147Sep 8, 3:59 PM ET11:14 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 3:59 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-3.558-1.815-0.07147Sep 8, 3:59 PM ET11:14 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:59 PM ET-2.62771
Projected value at 11:14 PM ET-0.319409
Actual value at 11:14 PM ET-0.517272
Projected change across the window+2.3083
Actual change across the window+2.11044
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.09×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.09 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (5:29 PM ET), where they sat 0.00202344 apart, and furthest at bar 2 (4:29 PM ET) with a gap of 1.24959. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 4 (4:59 PM ET), a move of -0.645129. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:14 PM-3.40921-2.31714+1.09207
65:29 PM-3.62006-3.62208-0.00202344
126:59 PM-2.73413-2.78799-0.0538599
188:29 PM-1.69949-1.34202+0.357474
249:59 PM-0.951323-0.289871+0.661452
2911:14 PM-0.319409-0.517272-0.197863

About MACD on a 15-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 15-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 7.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 7.5 hours of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.