MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 5:47 PM to 6:16 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 5:47 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 16.2068. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:16 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-8.2763.67915.63Sep 27, 5:47 PM ET6:16 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 5:47 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-8.2763.67915.63Sep 27, 5:47 PM ET6:16 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:47 PM ET16.2068
Projected value at 6:16 PM ET3.08038
Actual value at 6:16 PM ET-3.00895
Projected change across the window-13.1264
Actual change across the window-19.2157
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.68×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.68 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 21 (6:07 PM ET), where they sat 0.330469 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (5:47 PM ET) with a gap of 26.0884. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (6:04 PM ET), a move of -3.56018. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:48 PM-5.3624114.8351+20.1975
65:53 PM6.1558812.8495+6.6936
125:59 PM7.452815.6373+8.18451
186:05 PM6.5035.09446-1.40854
246:11 PM4.000483.42272-0.577757
296:16 PM3.08038-3.00895-6.08934

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Free trial MT5 AI MACD Yes. Alongside the regular MACD, PredictIndicators shows where the MACD is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. MACD indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Is there an indicator that predicts the next BTCUSD candle? Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 BTCUSD chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

MetaTrader how do predictive indicators work Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.