MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 1:12 PM to 1:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 1:12 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read -55.9429. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-59.61-27.784.051Sep 27, 1:12 PM ET1:41 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:12 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-59.61-27.784.051Sep 27, 1:12 PM ET1:41 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:12 PM ET-55.9429
Projected value at 1:41 PM ET-4.0376
Actual value at 1:41 PM ET8.32651
Projected change across the window+51.9053
Actual change across the window+64.2694
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.81×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.81 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (1:31 PM ET), where they sat 0.230674 apart, and furthest at bar 8 (1:20 PM ET) with a gap of 50.0697. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 14 (1:26 PM ET), a move of +13.9778. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:13 PM-16.5964-54.2314-37.635
61:18 PM-15.1328-58.1388-43.006
121:24 PM-11.1185-55.118-43.9994
181:30 PM-7.04839-10.6744-3.62599
241:36 PM-4.663650.00901607+4.67266
291:41 PM-4.03768.32651+12.3641

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.