MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 1:09 PM to 1:38 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 1:09 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read -50.8587. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:38 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-59.49-26.726.045Sep 27, 1:09 PM ET1:38 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:09 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-59.49-26.726.045Sep 27, 1:09 PM ET1:38 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:09 PM ET-50.8587
Projected value at 1:38 PM ET-0.861599
Actual value at 1:38 PM ET9.66236
Projected change across the window+49.9971
Actual change across the window+60.5211
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.83×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.83 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (1:28 PM ET), where they sat 0.291702 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (1:14 PM ET) with a gap of 55.7146. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (1:20 PM ET), a move of +13.9778. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:10 PM-10.1991-51.5633-41.3642
61:15 PM-7.86033-62.7731-54.9128
121:21 PM-3.833-27.301-23.468
181:27 PM-2.35455-3.39334-1.03879
241:33 PM-1.77265.15131+6.92391
291:38 PM-0.8615999.66236+10.524

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.