MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 1:03 PM to 1:32 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 1:03 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read -62.7731. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:32 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-58.44-26.166.111Sep 27, 1:03 PM ET1:32 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:03 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-58.44-26.166.111Sep 27, 1:03 PM ET1:32 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:03 PM ET-62.7731
Projected value at 1:32 PM ET-2.61744
Actual value at 1:32 PM ET4.50741
Projected change across the window+60.1557
Actual change across the window+67.2805
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.89×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.89 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (1:13 PM ET), where they sat 0.697215 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:03 PM ET) with a gap of 53.2558. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (1:08 PM ET), a move of +13.9778. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:04 PM-7.91346-60.5787-52.6652
61:09 PM-7.08223-27.301-20.2188
121:15 PM-6.5753-3.39334+3.18196
181:21 PM-4.593815.15131+9.74512
241:27 PM-4.135228.51974+12.655
291:32 PM-2.617444.50741+7.12485

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.