MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:12 PM to 12:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 12:12 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 24.2922. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-5.1098.66622.44Sep 27, 12:12 PM ET12:41 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:12 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-5.1098.66622.44Sep 27, 12:12 PM ET12:41 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:12 PM ET24.2922
Projected value at 12:41 PM ET6.99268
Actual value at 12:41 PM ET0.828988
Projected change across the window-17.2995
Actual change across the window-23.4632
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.74×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.74 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (12:17 PM ET), where they sat 0.191191 apart, and furthest at bar 22 (12:34 PM ET) with a gap of 17.2808. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (12:25 PM ET), a move of -3.62806. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:13 PM18.61724.0659+5.44888
612:18 PM21.312220.7606-0.551661
1212:24 PM18.19279.74235-8.45036
1812:30 PM14.01282.09464-11.9182
2412:36 PM8.60604-6.40089-15.0069
2912:41 PM6.992680.828988-6.16369

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.