MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:03 PM to 12:32 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 12:03 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 14.9402. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:32 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-9.7751.80513.39Sep 27, 12:03 PM ET12:32 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:03 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-9.7751.80513.39Sep 27, 12:03 PM ET12:32 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:03 PM ET14.9402
Projected value at 12:32 PM ET-1.67673
Actual value at 12:32 PM ET-4.12681
Projected change across the window-16.617
Actual change across the window-19.067
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (12:25 PM ET), where they sat 1.00382 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:03 PM ET) with a gap of 24.3715. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (12:06 PM ET), a move of -3.62806. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:04 PM-9.6686212.9102+22.5788
612:09 PM-11.27365.0056+16.2792
1212:15 PM-9.82297-6.95931+2.86365
1812:21 PM-7.699190.499618+8.19881
2412:27 PM-4.48555-8.14058-3.65503
2912:32 PM-1.67673-4.12681-2.45008

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.