MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:03 PM to 12:32 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 12:03 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 14.9402. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:32 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-9.7751.80513.39Sep 27, 12:03 PM ET12:32 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:03 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-9.7751.80513.39Sep 27, 12:03 PM ET12:32 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:03 PM ET14.9402
Projected value at 12:32 PM ET-1.67673
Actual value at 12:32 PM ET-4.12681
Projected change across the window-16.617
Actual change across the window-19.067
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (12:25 PM ET), where they sat 1.00382 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:03 PM ET) with a gap of 24.3715. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (12:06 PM ET), a move of -3.62806. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:04 PM-9.6686212.9102+22.5788
612:09 PM-11.27365.0056+16.2792
1212:15 PM-9.82297-6.95931+2.86365
1812:21 PM-7.699190.499618+8.19881
2412:27 PM-4.48555-8.14058-3.65503
2912:32 PM-1.67673-4.12681-2.45008

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Chart reader MACD for NinjaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular MACD, PredictIndicators shows where the MACD is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. MACD indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NT8 ask AI about technical indicators The PredictIndicators chat indicator runs live on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts: ask about the BTCUSD chart, the predicted candles and the indicators, and the answer appears on the chart. AI chat indicator →

Is there an indicator that predicts the next BTCUSD candle? Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 BTCUSD chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.