MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 11:53 AM to 12:22 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 11:53 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read -1.3755. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:22 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-15.22-3.4548.312Sep 27, 11:53 AM ET12:22 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 11:53 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-15.22-3.4548.312Sep 27, 11:53 AM ET12:22 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:53 AM ET-1.3755
Projected value at 12:22 PM ET1.79034
Actual value at 12:22 PM ET1.77897
Projected change across the window+3.16584
Actual change across the window+3.15447
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.00×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.00 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:22 PM ET), where they sat 0.0113706 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (11:53 AM ET) with a gap of 15.4246. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (12:13 PM ET), a move of +4.25064. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:54 AM-15.1251-3.85307+11.272
611:59 AM-6.13168-2.20337+3.92831
1212:05 PM-1.25804-6.58731-5.32927
1812:11 PM0.596725-6.52857-7.1253
2412:17 PM1.270857.39089+6.12004
2912:22 PM1.790341.77897-0.0113706

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.