MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 11:20 AM to 11:49 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 11:20 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read -6.57163. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:49 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-29.41-8.86911.67Sep 27, 11:20 AM ET11:49 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 11:20 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-29.41-8.86911.67Sep 27, 11:20 AM ET11:49 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:20 AM ET-6.57163
Projected value at 11:49 AM ET6.85612
Actual value at 11:49 AM ET-28.0418
Projected change across the window+13.4278
Actual change across the window-21.4702
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.63×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise, while it fell instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.63 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (11:31 AM ET), where they sat 0.136003 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (11:47 AM ET) with a gap of 41.134. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (11:25 AM ET), a move of +5.39449. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:21 AM-5.47445-5.65173-0.17728
611:26 AM6.4947910.9822+4.48743
1211:32 AM11.66249.80713-1.85525
1811:38 AM11.0929-7.16257-18.2555
2411:44 AM9.34648-24.2142-33.5607
2911:49 AM6.85612-28.0418-34.8979

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Live confidence score MACD for NinjaTrader 8 Yes. Alongside the regular MACD, PredictIndicators shows where the MACD is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. MACD indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to install an indicator in MetaTrader 5 for Bitcoin Download PredictIndicators for your platform, activate the 3 day free licence and add it to your BTCUSD chart: the predicted candles appear right away. How to install →

Is there an indicator that predicts the next BTCUSD candle? Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 BTCUSD chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.