MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 10:59 AM to 11:28 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 10:59 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read -15.7047. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:28 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-46.71-25.62-4.532Sep 27, 10:59 AM ET11:28 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 10:59 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-46.71-25.62-4.532Sep 27, 10:59 AM ET11:28 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:59 AM ET-15.7047
Projected value at 11:28 AM ET-1.77381
Actual value at 11:28 AM ET-8.44698
Projected change across the window+13.9309
Actual change across the window+7.25776
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.92×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.92 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (11:05 AM ET), where they sat 0.609775 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:59 AM ET) with a gap of 33.838. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (11:01 AM ET), a move of -3.96524. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:00 AM-47.1202-17.1909+29.9293
611:05 AM-31.5613-32.171-0.609775
1211:11 AM-16.0099-24.7548-8.74484
1811:17 AM-7.39781-17.5446-10.1468
2411:23 AM-2.04491-11.0584-9.0135
2911:28 AM-1.77381-8.44698-6.67317

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.