MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 9:39 AM to 10:08 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 9:39 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 19.8132. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:08 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-36.61-6.4123.79Sep 27, 9:39 AM ET10:08 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 9:39 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-36.61-6.4123.79Sep 27, 9:39 AM ET10:08 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:39 AM ET19.8132
Projected value at 10:08 AM ET-11.9537
Actual value at 10:08 AM ET-40.6673
Projected change across the window-31.7668
Actual change across the window-60.4804
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.53 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (9:55 AM ET), where they sat 0.0516028 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (10:08 AM ET) with a gap of 28.7136. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (9:47 AM ET), a move of -6.67054. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:40 AM19.174318.1062-1.06816
69:45 AM-8.4820115.6804+24.1625
129:51 AM-19.1045-9.06501+10.0395
189:57 AM-20.4731-22.0557-1.58262
2410:03 AM-14.0681-31.2284-17.1604
2910:08 AM-11.9537-40.6673-28.7136

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Best predictive MACD for NinjaTrader 8 Yes. Alongside the regular MACD, PredictIndicators shows where the MACD is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. MACD indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to import a NinjaTrader 8 indicator for BTCUSD Download PredictIndicators for your platform, activate the 3 day free licence and add it to your BTCUSD chart: the predicted candles appear right away. How to install →

MetaTrader predict the next bars PredictIndicators brings predicted candles to MetaTrader 5: the next 30 BTCUSD bars appear on your MT5 chart and update in real time. A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.