MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 9:37 AM to 10:06 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 9:37 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 14.3555. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:06 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-35.463.32142.1Sep 27, 9:37 AM ET10:06 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 9:37 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-35.463.32142.1Sep 27, 9:37 AM ET10:06 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:37 AM ET14.3555
Projected value at 10:06 AM ET-5.63633
Actual value at 10:06 AM ET-23.7828
Projected change across the window-19.9918
Actual change across the window-38.1383
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.52×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.52 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 5 (9:41 AM ET), where they sat 11.9263 apart, and furthest at bar 26 (10:03 AM ET) with a gap of 34.4542. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (10:05 AM ET), a move of +7.05315. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:38 AM40.155415.2786-24.8768
69:43 AM13.939-0.131603-14.0706
129:49 AM-1.95204-16.9306-14.9785
189:55 AM-6.55052-24.6591-18.1086
2410:01 AM-8.90046-35.4345-26.5341
2910:06 AM-5.63633-23.7828-18.1465

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Live confidence score MACD for MT5 Yes. Alongside the regular MACD, PredictIndicators shows where the MACD is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. MACD indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

MetaTrader intraday futures prediction Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

NT8 confidence score for next candles A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.