MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 8:08 AM to 8:37 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 8:08 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 59.6135. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:37 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

7.21332.6958.17Sep 27, 8:08 AM ET8:37 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 8:08 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

7.21332.6958.17Sep 27, 8:08 AM ET8:37 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:08 AM ET59.6135
Projected value at 8:37 AM ET3.79114
Actual value at 8:37 AM ET15.2952
Projected change across the window-55.8223
Actual change across the window-44.3182
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.26×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.26 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (8:37 AM ET), where they sat 11.5041 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (8:11 AM ET) with a gap of 41.0133. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (8:28 AM ET), a move of -5.35391. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:09 AM21.128861.5894+40.4606
68:14 AM18.103154.6331+36.53
128:20 AM12.608641.3364+28.7278
188:26 AM7.9101137.3449+29.4348
248:32 AM5.2999122.8094+17.5095
298:37 AM3.7911415.2952+11.5041

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.