MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 7:26 AM to 7:55 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 7:26 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read -5.80759. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:55 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-9.321.01411.35Sep 27, 7:26 AM ET7:55 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 7:26 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-9.321.01411.35Sep 27, 7:26 AM ET7:55 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:26 AM ET-5.80759
Projected value at 7:55 AM ET3.94085
Actual value at 7:55 AM ET-10.7073
Projected change across the window+9.74844
Actual change across the window-4.89976
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.99×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.99 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (7:48 AM ET), where they sat 8.64212 apart, and furthest at bar 4 (7:30 AM ET) with a gap of 21.7893. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (7:35 AM ET), a move of +3.47272. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:27 AM8.43286-6.97989-15.4127
67:32 AM12.1202-8.7514-20.8716
127:38 AM12.09491.29763-10.7973
187:44 AM9.16211-1.72243-10.8845
247:50 AM6.46208-3.36166-9.82374
297:55 AM3.94085-10.7073-14.6482

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.