MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 6:23 AM to 6:52 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 6:23 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 27.3128. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:52 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

0.674813.4626.25Sep 27, 6:23 AM ET6:52 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 6:23 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

0.674813.4626.25Sep 27, 6:23 AM ET6:52 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:23 AM ET27.3128
Projected value at 6:52 AM ET1.57977
Actual value at 6:52 AM ET7.33765
Projected change across the window-25.733
Actual change across the window-19.9751
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.29×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.29 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (6:50 AM ET), where they sat 0.244571 apart, and furthest at bar 10 (6:33 AM ET) with a gap of 21.6768. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (6:38 AM ET), a move of -5.22334. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:24 AM20.779425.5251+4.74568
66:29 AM10.372421.9436+11.5713
126:35 AM5.2340524.3542+19.1201
186:41 AM4.210875.78912+1.57825
246:47 AM3.35995-0.990336-4.35028
296:52 AM1.579777.33765+5.75788

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.