MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 4:21 AM to 4:50 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 27, 2026 at 4:21 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 13.8695. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:50 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-7.62511.2730.16Sep 27, 4:21 AM ET4:50 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:21 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-7.62511.2730.16Sep 27, 4:21 AM ET4:50 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:21 AM ET13.8695
Projected value at 4:50 AM ET-0.43446
Actual value at 4:50 AM ET-10.1621
Projected change across the window-14.304
Actual change across the window-24.0316
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.60×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.60 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (4:26 AM ET), where they sat 0.247146 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (4:21 AM ET) with a gap of 18.8284. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (4:32 AM ET), a move of -4.83871. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:22 AM30.49415.1733-15.3207
64:27 AM19.445623.5055+4.05991
124:33 AM9.055738.47931-0.576424
184:39 AM3.02491-3.55436-6.57928
244:45 AM0.859324-3.34569-4.20501
294:50 AM-0.43446-10.1621-9.72762

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download NinjaTrader 8 AI MACD Yes. Alongside the regular MACD, PredictIndicators shows where the MACD is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. MACD indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader can AI indicators predict future values for BTCUSD PredictIndicators draws the predicted next 30 candles of BTCUSD on your NinjaTrader 8 chart, to the right of the last bar, and updates them in real time. They are predictions, not certainties. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

NT8 predictive indicator confidence score for Bitcoin A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.