MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 3:28 AM to 3:57 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 3:28 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read -26.2248. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:57 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-24.96-9.2266.504Sep 27, 3:28 AM ET3:57 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 3:28 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-24.96-9.2266.504Sep 27, 3:28 AM ET3:57 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:28 AM ET-26.2248
Projected value at 3:57 AM ET-1.63548
Actual value at 3:57 AM ET-10.0485
Projected change across the window+24.5893
Actual change across the window+16.1763
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.52×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.52 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (3:38 AM ET), where they sat 0.154851 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (3:29 AM ET) with a gap of 22.5786. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (3:37 AM ET), a move of +3.59597. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:29 AM-4.49002-27.0687-22.5786
63:34 AM-3.68869-15.4736-11.7849
123:40 AM-3.14607-1.31804+1.82803
183:46 AM-2.956344.24324+7.19958
243:52 AM-1.90962-0.339417+1.5702
293:57 AM-1.63548-10.0485-8.41303

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.