MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:33 AM to 1:02 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 12:33 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read -6.44881. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:02 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-30.45-18.94-7.432Sep 27, 12:33 AM ET1:02 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:33 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-30.45-18.94-7.432Sep 27, 12:33 AM ET1:02 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:33 AM ET-6.44881
Projected value at 1:02 AM ET-5.8866
Actual value at 1:02 AM ET-7.20867
Projected change across the window+0.562208
Actual change across the window-0.759864
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.74×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise, while it fell instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.74 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (1:02 AM ET), where they sat 1.32207 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (12:48 AM ET) with a gap of 16.3177. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (12:35 AM ET), a move of -8.41519. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:34 AM-17.8804-12.8751+5.00531
612:39 AM-20.524-29.7148-9.19082
1212:45 AM-16.2013-30.6869-14.4855
1812:51 AM-10.9593-24.2744-13.3151
2412:57 AM-7.82987-15.7861-7.9562
291:02 AM-5.8866-7.20867-1.32207

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.