MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:29 AM to 12:58 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 12:29 AM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read -27.2894. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:58 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-29.52-11.147.248Sep 27, 12:29 AM ET12:58 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:29 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-29.52-11.147.248Sep 27, 12:29 AM ET12:58 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:29 AM ET-27.2894
Projected value at 12:58 AM ET-4.99931
Actual value at 12:58 AM ET9.71764
Projected change across the window+22.2901
Actual change across the window+37.007
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.60×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.60 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (12:54 AM ET), where they sat 1.11289 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:29 AM ET) with a gap of 29.534. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (12:57 AM ET), a move of +5.39977. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:30 AM0.539648-28.5377-29.0773
612:35 AM-5.10074-31.7166-26.6159
1212:41 AM-7.01805-25.7112-18.6932
1812:47 AM-7.4802-19.4338-11.9536
2412:53 AM-6.17064-9.17422-3.00358
2912:58 AM-4.999319.71764+14.717

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.