MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 9:18 PM to 9:47 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 26, 2026 at 9:18 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 32.5488. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:47 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-41.14-6.61227.91Sep 26, 9:18 PM ET9:47 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 9:18 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-41.14-6.61227.91Sep 26, 9:18 PM ET9:47 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:18 PM ET32.5488
Projected value at 9:47 PM ET-6.88636
Actual value at 9:47 PM ET-45.7737
Projected change across the window-39.4352
Actual change across the window-78.3225
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.50×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.50 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (9:42 PM ET), where they sat 1.39599 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (9:47 PM ET) with a gap of 38.8874. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (9:43 PM ET), a move of -8.01031. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:19 PM17.783532.0917+14.3082
69:24 PM9.0727128.67+19.5973
129:30 PM-0.53586127.3222+27.8581
189:36 PM-6.202411.4841+17.6865
249:42 PM-7.10213-8.49812-1.39599
299:47 PM-6.88636-45.7737-38.8874

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Indicator to predict the next candle on Bitcoin Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 BTCUSD chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.