MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 9:07 PM to 9:36 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 9:07 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 28.0429. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:36 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-44.7-10.6223.47Sep 26, 9:07 PM ET9:36 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 9:07 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-44.7-10.6223.47Sep 26, 9:07 PM ET9:36 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:07 PM ET28.0429
Projected value at 9:36 PM ET-12.9261
Actual value at 9:36 PM ET4.06541
Projected change across the window-40.969
Actual change across the window-23.9775
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.71×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.71 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (9:34 PM ET), where they sat 2.17296 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (9:08 PM ET) with a gap of 39.8619. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (9:36 PM ET), a move of +10.8082. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:08 PM-12.539727.3222+39.8619
69:13 PM-17.5813.3517+30.9317
129:19 PM-19.5931-2.49314+17.1
189:25 PM-19.736-45.7737-26.0377
249:31 PM-16.3509-37.1101-20.7592
299:36 PM-12.92614.06541+16.9915

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.