MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 5, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 5, 2026, 6:07 PM to 6:36 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 5, 2026 at 6:07 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 20.663. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:36 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-5.1246.95819.04Sep 5, 6:07 PM ET6:36 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 6:07 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-5.1246.95819.04Sep 5, 6:07 PM ET6:36 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:07 PM ET20.663
Projected value at 6:36 PM ET3.37776
Actual value at 6:36 PM ET-4.35381
Projected change across the window-17.2853
Actual change across the window-25.0168
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.69×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.69 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (6:23 PM ET), where they sat 1.06543 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (6:07 PM ET) with a gap of 11.3187. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (6:14 PM ET), a move of -2.82471. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:08 PM8.6565219.2657+10.6092
66:13 PM6.1711211.8891+5.71798
126:19 PM5.117698.00528+2.8876
186:25 PM4.400841.20759-3.19325
246:31 PM3.35272-5.99846-9.35118
296:36 PM3.37776-4.35381-7.73158

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Free trial NinjaTrader 8 AI MACD Yes. Alongside the regular MACD, PredictIndicators shows where the MACD is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. MACD indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Is there an indicator that predicts the next BTCUSD candle? Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 BTCUSD chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

NinjaTrader multi indicator prediction Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted BTCUSD candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.