MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 5, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 5, 2026, 4:02 PM to 4:31 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 5, 2026 at 4:02 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read -26.083. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:31 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-24.48-6.50511.47Sep 5, 4:02 PM ET4:31 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:02 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-24.48-6.50511.47Sep 5, 4:02 PM ET4:31 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:02 PM ET-26.083
Projected value at 4:31 PM ET-1.00236
Actual value at 4:31 PM ET13.8896
Projected change across the window+25.0806
Actual change across the window+39.9725
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.63×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.63 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (4:10 PM ET), where they sat 0.855927 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (4:29 PM ET) with a gap of 15.4187. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (4:09 PM ET), a move of +8.93431. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:03 PM-22.5323-25.0568-2.52452
64:08 PM-14.9718-18.6503-3.67858
124:14 PM-8.10243-17.2001-9.09766
184:20 PM-4.07696-6.68163-2.60467
244:26 PM-2.042511.7344+13.7769
294:31 PM-1.0023613.8896+14.8919

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.