MACD prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 7:11 PM to 7:40 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 4, 2026 at 7:11 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read -29.3323. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:40 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-23.7717.6859.13Sep 4, 7:11 PM ET7:40 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 7:11 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-23.7717.6859.13Sep 4, 7:11 PM ET7:40 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:11 PM ET-29.3323
Projected value at 7:40 PM ET0.0499776
Actual value at 7:40 PM ET-13.533
Projected change across the window+29.3823
Actual change across the window+15.7992
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.86×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.86 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (7:26 PM ET), where they sat 0.16501 apart, and furthest at bar 23 (7:34 PM ET) with a gap of 64.733. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (7:31 PM ET), a move of +27.3704. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:12 PM-4.36943-22.3273-17.9579
67:17 PM-2.2949320.1446+22.4395
127:23 PM-1.1032-3.8383-2.73509
187:29 PM-0.31498910.3044+10.6194
247:35 PM0.14124153.7361+53.5949
297:40 PM0.0499776-13.533-13.583

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.