MACD forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 5:34 PM to 6:03 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 4, 2026 at 5:34 PM ET, MACD on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read -313.68. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:03 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-294-147.5-1.055Sep 4, 5:34 PM ET6:03 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 5:34 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-294-147.5-1.055Sep 4, 5:34 PM ET6:03 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:34 PM ET-313.68
Projected value at 6:03 PM ET2.98434
Actual value at 6:03 PM ET-14.0145
Projected change across the window+316.665
Actual change across the window+299.666
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.06×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.06 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (5:40 PM ET), where they sat 1.48389 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (5:34 PM ET) with a gap of 322.477. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (5:39 PM ET), a move of +84.8266. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:35 PM8.93058-270.02-278.951
65:40 PM8.241419.72529+1.48389
125:46 PM6.4418-18.2526-24.6944
185:52 PM4.425-17.1465-21.5715
245:58 PM3.36812-19.7845-23.1526
296:03 PM2.98434-14.0145-16.9989

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.