Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 16, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 16, 2026, 4:42 AM to 5:11 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 16, 2026 at 4:42 AM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -21.9713. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:11 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-20.05-5.7618.529Sep 16, 4:42 AM ET5:11 AM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 4:42 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-20.05-5.7618.529Sep 16, 4:42 AM ET5:11 AM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:42 AM ET-21.9713
Projected value at 5:11 AM ET0.272659
Actual value at 5:11 AM ET10.4485
Projected change across the window+22.244
Actual change across the window+32.4199
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.69×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.69 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (4:57 AM ET), where they sat 0.132711 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (4:42 AM ET) with a gap of 10.8386. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 4 (4:46 AM ET), a move of +3.01029. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:43 AM-11.1458-19.4441-8.29833
64:48 AM-7.34803-6.78897+0.559057
124:54 AM-3.92682.37868+6.30547
185:00 AM-2.89396-2.70441+0.189552
245:06 AM-0.6221672.78309+3.40526
295:11 AM0.27265910.4485+10.1759

About Awesome Oscillator on a 1-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.