Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 16, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 16, 2026, 1:41 AM to 2:10 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 16, 2026 at 1:41 AM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -5.43676. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:10 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-16.78-1.36614.05Sep 16, 1:41 AM ET2:10 AM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 1:41 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-16.78-1.36614.05Sep 16, 1:41 AM ET2:10 AM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:41 AM ET-5.43676
Projected value at 2:10 AM ET0.855858
Actual value at 2:10 AM ET-16.1838
Projected change across the window+6.29262
Actual change across the window-10.7471
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.59×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise, while it fell instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.59 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 13 (1:53 AM ET), where they sat 0.0774575 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (2:08 AM ET) with a gap of 20.6387. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (2:04 AM ET), a move of -6.42132. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:42 AM12.9829-2.57647-15.5593
61:47 AM14.48175.75735-8.72433
121:53 AM10.99810.9206-0.0774575
181:59 AM7.387787.65294+0.26516
242:05 AM3.34908-12.8235-16.1726
292:10 AM0.855858-16.1838-17.0397

About Awesome Oscillator on a 1-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.