Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-hour chart, September 23, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 23, 2026, 11:42 AM to 4:42 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 23, 2026 at 11:42 AM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-hour chart read -42.2022. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:42 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-42.15-22.54-2.924Sep 23, 11:42 AM ET4:42 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 11:42 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-42.15-22.54-2.924Sep 23, 11:42 AM ET4:42 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:42 AM ET-42.2022
Projected value at 4:42 PM ET-0.290345
Actual value at 4:42 PM ET-14.8926
Projected change across the window+41.9119
Actual change across the window+27.3096
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.53 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 24 (10:42 AM ET), where they sat 5.57836 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (2:42 AM ET) with a gap of 29.5097. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (7:42 AM ET), a move of +6.56544. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:42 PM-21.3268-43.3353-22.0085
65:42 PM-20.4095-41.8184-21.4089
1211:42 PM-15.7885-39.5713-23.7828
185:42 AM-6.4661-31.3949-24.9287
2411:42 AM-2.21268-7.96618-5.7535
294:42 PM-0.290345-14.8926-14.6023

About Awesome Oscillator on a 1-hour chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 1-hour timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 hours of trading, so the window above describes 30 hours of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.