Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 5-minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 4:07 PM to 6:32 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 25, 2026 at 4:07 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 5-minute chart read -2.88676. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:32 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-2.4740.60363.681Sep 25, 4:07 PM ET6:32 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 4:07 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-2.4740.60363.681Sep 25, 4:07 PM ET6:32 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:07 PM ET-2.88676
Projected value at 6:32 PM ET-0.0924048
Actual value at 6:32 PM ET-0.529412
Projected change across the window+2.79436
Actual change across the window+2.35735
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.19×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.19 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (5:57 PM ET), where they sat 0.0645967 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (4:07 PM ET) with a gap of 5.78309. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (4:12 PM ET), a move of +1.55515. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:12 PM3.70406-1.33162-5.03568
64:37 PM3.812141.92647-1.88567
125:07 PM2.427413.55809+1.13068
185:37 PM1.550952.33676+0.78581
246:07 PM0.8693430.355882-0.51346
296:32 PM-0.0924048-0.529412-0.437007

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.