Awesome Oscillator prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 500 minute chart, October 21, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 21, 2026, 11:23 AM to 1:03 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On October 21, 2026 at 11:23 AM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 500 minute chart read 3.98897. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:03 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-0.79789.49519.79Oct 21, 11:23 AM ET1:03 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 11:23 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-0.79789.49519.79Oct 21, 11:23 AM ET1:03 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:23 AM ET3.98897
Projected value at 1:03 PM ET10.4122
Actual value at 1:03 PM ET14.4596
Projected change across the window+6.42324
Actual change across the window+10.4706
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.61×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.61 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (9:03 AM ET), where they sat 0.372227 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (12:23 PM ET) with a gap of 22.1678. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (9:43 PM ET), a move of +3.96471. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:43 PM17.31730.895588-16.4217
61:23 PM19.74122.64926-17.0919
123:23 PM20.525517.8809-2.64465
185:23 PM8.9772811.5816+2.60434
247:23 PM8.3220112.0125+3.69049
291:03 PM10.412214.4596+4.04734

About Awesome Oscillator on a 500 minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 500 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 250 hours of trading, so the window above describes 250 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.