Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 15-minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 11:10 AM to 6:25 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 25, 2026 at 11:10 AM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 15-minute chart read 8.18162. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:25 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-13.925.09224.11Sep 25, 11:10 AM ET6:25 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 11:10 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-13.925.09224.11Sep 25, 11:10 AM ET6:25 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:10 AM ET8.18162
Projected value at 6:25 PM ET-0.433201
Actual value at 6:25 PM ET19.4603
Projected change across the window-8.61482
Actual change across the window+11.2787
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading21 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.76×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.76 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 21 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (2:25 PM ET), where they sat 0.00711635 apart, and furthest at bar 25 (5:25 PM ET) with a gap of 28.9135. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (2:25 PM ET), a move of +5.49706. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:25 AM-10.22057.20221+17.4228
612:40 PM-12.3578-8.05+4.30785
122:10 PM-9.75444-14.7441-4.98968
183:40 PM-5.63791-1.14706+4.49085
245:10 PM-2.5202223.8066+26.3268
296:25 PM-0.43320119.4603+19.8935

About Awesome Oscillator on a 15-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 15-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 7.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 7.5 hours of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.