Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 5-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 3:52 PM to 6:17 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 3:52 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 5-minute chart read -2.41079. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:17 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-4.2210.96756.156Sep 26, 3:52 PM ET6:17 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 3:52 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-4.2210.96756.156Sep 26, 3:52 PM ET6:17 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:52 PM ET-2.41079
Projected value at 6:17 PM ET0.0791346
Actual value at 6:17 PM ET0.865941
Projected change across the window+2.48993
Actual change across the window+3.27674
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.76×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.76 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (5:42 PM ET), where they sat 0.466392 apart, and furthest at bar 9 (4:37 PM ET) with a gap of 7.01609. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (4:27 PM ET), a move of +1.62224. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:57 PM-4.44854-2.53515+1.91339
64:22 PM-2.151572.44406+4.59563
124:52 PM-0.03355886.85318+6.88674
185:22 PM0.0006004073.04588+3.04528
245:52 PM0.1114360.665265+0.553828
296:17 PM0.07913460.865941+0.786807

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.