Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 5-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 3:20 PM to 5:45 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 3:20 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 5-minute chart read -4.00615. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:45 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-3.663-1.1081.447Sep 26, 3:20 PM ET5:45 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 3:20 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-3.663-1.1081.447Sep 26, 3:20 PM ET5:45 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:20 PM ET-4.00615
Projected value at 5:45 PM ET-0.064412
Actual value at 5:45 PM ET1.79056
Projected change across the window+3.94174
Actual change across the window+5.79671
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.68×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.68 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (4:35 PM ET), where they sat 0.00607285 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:20 PM ET) with a gap of 1.90772. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (3:35 PM ET), a move of +0.889882. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:25 PM-2.03347-3.28185-1.24838
63:50 PM-1.71163-1.29053+0.4211
124:20 PM-1.32847-1.01994+0.308526
184:50 PM-0.874437-1.65524-0.780799
245:20 PM-0.387096-1.29865-0.911551
295:45 PM-0.0644121.79056+1.85497

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.