Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 5-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 3:16 PM to 5:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 3:16 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 5-minute chart read 6.74938. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-2.3721.9026.175Sep 26, 3:16 PM ET5:41 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 3:16 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-2.3721.9026.175Sep 26, 3:16 PM ET5:41 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:16 PM ET6.74938
Projected value at 5:41 PM ET-0.345413
Actual value at 5:41 PM ET-2.94594
Projected change across the window-7.0948
Actual change across the window-9.69532
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.73×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.73 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (5:26 PM ET), where they sat 0.122831 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:16 PM ET) with a gap of 6.91883. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (5:26 PM ET), a move of -1.25309. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:21 PM-0.2606856.38856+6.64924
63:46 PM-0.5806793.856+4.43668
124:16 PM-0.3947262.91324+3.30796
184:46 PM-0.2434652.83403+3.07749
245:16 PM-0.255572.06503+2.3206
295:41 PM-0.345413-2.94594-2.60053

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.